The MOO Model predicts AAP to be the Front Runner in Bawana Elections.
15 points you just cannot miss on Bawana Bypolls – Jan Ki Baat Ground Report
1. MOO Model: Probability Map of Outcomes – 3 swing factors, 3 modifiers/catalysts enhance or decrease a likelihood of a particular outcome, produce top 3 likely outcomes
2. Likely outcome (80% probability): Aam Aadmi Party as front runner ahead of Congress and BJP
3. Swing Factor 1-Rejection of local candidate Ved Prakash contesting from BJP: based on poor past track record. This reduces BJP’s chances to win Bawana.
4. Swing Factor 2: Acceptance of local candidate Surendra Kumar (INC), based on good past track record, can lead to an upswing in Congress’s vote share
5. Swing Factor 3: The supposed Modi wave which can defeat all rationality of ground reports, making BJP shine again after UP and MCD Elections 2017
6. Modifier 1: The Jat factor-Bawana has a jat minority) likely to decelerate chances of BJP due to past animosity with the community over reservations.
7. Modifier 2: Kejriwal government in Delhi-can accelerate chances of AAP, over-riding the popularity of Surendra Kumar.
8. Modifier 3: Vote Wastage- Voter’s Psychology to not waste vote by giving to Congress with weak national leadership and absence in Delhi assembly accelerates chances of AAP
9. Misc. factors (from on ground reporting): Jat votes likely to be divided between AAP and Congress, more favoring AAP
10. Misc. Factor 2: Ved Prakash can even sway away core BJP loyalists.
11. Misc Factor 3: Bawana likely to vote based on local candidates rather than party preference or national politics.
12. Misc. Factor 4: Denial of ticket to Janta’s preferred Guggan Singh and his joining the AAP; huge set back for BJP
13. Misc. factor 5: Backward caste (“Valmikis” and “Harijans”) likely to vote for AAP
14. Areas covered in Bawana: Shahbad Dairy, Begampur, Prahladpur, Barwala, Panchayat Ghar, Ambedkar Gali-spanning urban, semi-urban and rural segments
15. Top issues: Unclean water, sanitation, and sewage problems pick pocketing, unprotected wiring, unemployment, lack of quality educational and health centers, the problem of transport connectivity.
Prediction by Pradip Bhandari (CEO & Founder: JAN KI BAAT), contributions from Akriti Bhatia (Founding partner: JAN KI BAAT)