Jan Ki Baat Exit Poll, AAP for Bawana


The MOO model

The MOO Model predicts AAP to be the Front Runner in Bawana Elections.

The MOO model

15 points you just cannot miss on Bawana Bypolls – Jan Ki Baat Ground Report

1. MOO Model: Probability Map of Outcomes – 3 swing factors, 3 modifiers/catalysts enhance or decrease a likelihood of a particular outcome, produce top 3 likely outcomes

2. Likely outcome (80% probability): Aam Aadmi Party as front runner ahead of Congress and BJP

3. Swing Factor 1-Rejection of local candidate Ved Prakash contesting from BJP: based on poor past track record. This reduces BJP’s chances to win Bawana.

 

4. Swing Factor 2: Acceptance of local candidate Surendra Kumar (INC), based on good past track record, can lead to an upswing in Congress’s vote share

5. Swing Factor 3: The supposed Modi wave which can defeat all rationality of ground reports, making BJP shine again after UP and MCD Elections 2017

6. Modifier 1: The Jat factor-Bawana has a jat minority) likely to decelerate chances of BJP due to past animosity with the community over reservations.

7. Modifier 2: Kejriwal government in Delhi-can accelerate chances of AAP, over-riding the popularity of Surendra Kumar.

8. Modifier 3: Vote Wastage- Voter’s Psychology to not waste vote by giving to Congress with weak national leadership and absence in Delhi assembly accelerates chances of AAP

9. Misc. factors (from on ground reporting): Jat votes likely to be divided between AAP and Congress, more favoring AAP

10. Misc. Factor 2: Ved Prakash can even sway away core BJP loyalists.

11. Misc Factor 3: Bawana likely to vote based on local candidates rather than party preference or national politics.

12. Misc. Factor 4: Denial of ticket to Janta’s preferred Guggan Singh and his joining the AAP; huge set back for BJP

13. Misc. factor 5: Backward caste (“Valmikis” and “Harijans”) likely to vote for AAP

14. Areas covered in Bawana: Shahbad Dairy, Begampur, Prahladpur, Barwala, Panchayat Ghar, Ambedkar Gali-spanning urban, semi-urban and rural segments

15. Top issues: Unclean water, sanitation, and sewage problems pick pocketing, unprotected wiring, unemployment, lack of quality educational and health centers, the problem of transport connectivity.

Prediction by Pradip Bhandari (CEO & Founder: JAN KI BAAT), contributions from Akriti Bhatia (Founding partner: JAN KI BAAT)

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